Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
