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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It often serves as a form of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement receives the prize. In reality, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or just the most shocking shock.

Yet this year's field is fundamentally different. The pool of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions fading and longtime underperformers improving in unison. Under an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a given after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still